Alarming Export Loss Forecast: Global Trade Faces $305 Billion Hit

Alarming Export Loss Forecast: Global Trade Faces $305 Billion Hit

A new survey by credit insurer Allianz Trade reveals an alarming and stunning outlook for global exports in 2025, projecting losses of $305 billion. This dire forecast marks a dramatic shift in business sentiment, largely attributed to the wave of new US tariffs and heightened global trade uncertainties. The survey indicates that nearly half of companies worldwide now anticipate a decline in their export revenues, ranging from 2% to 10%.

This pessimistic turn is a stark contrast to pre-April, when only 5% of companies expected such a drop. Following US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement of new tariffs in early April, positive export forecasts have more than halved, falling to just 40%. The survey also highlights a rising risk of payment defaults, particularly in the US, Italy, and the UK, further complicating the global trade landscape.

To cope with higher costs, 38% of global companies plan to pass them on to customers, with this intention being particularly strong in the United States (54%). The report also notes that some firms are considering temporary production halts, especially in industries heavily dependent on imported intermediate goods.

For Shiv’s Assets Group, this sobering forecast underscores the urgent need for proactive risk management. As an exporter of building materials, potential declines in global export revenues and increased payment defaults could directly impact your business. The trend of companies passing on higher costs to customers might also affect the competitiveness of your products in international markets. Diversifying your customer base, securing payment terms, and closely monitoring market sentiment will be crucial strategies to navigate this challenging period and safeguard your export operations.

Source: Fibre2Fashion (Allianz Trade Global Survey), Published May 25, 2025